https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=R-z92l0kPls

I think these renewed and renewed community Thank you. It’s remarkable to see all of you here in this amazing room. So well, I hope we have an interesting and engaging time tonight. That’s the plan. I have a lecture planned, so it’s got a strange title. It’s not that exciting really. The first part of it is the socialization of the value hierarchy. And the second is, and the estimation of the magnitude of error. It’s like you wouldn’t think you’d come and sit in here to listen to that talk, really, would you? I’m not sure I would. But it is interesting. It’s a very, very interesting problem. And here’s part of what the problem is, part of the problem I’m trying to solve. Part of it is, how is your emotional stability tied up with your social identity? That’s a really important question. And I think it might be the central question that I’ve been pursuing my entire, as long as I’ve been able to think intellectually, that might be the problem that I’ve been pursuing. Because one of the things I’ve been interested in is, why is it that people are so committed to their group identity, let’s say, or their group beliefs that they will, well, let’s say go to war to protect them or to spread them, or that they will commit atrocities, hypothetically, in defense of them? So it’s a very interesting problem. You know, because people, when people think about motivation for war, for example, they often attribute it to economic causes. And that just never struck me as plausible. It’s not as plausible as it’s plausible, but it’s not a deep solution, as far as I’m concerned. It’s more psychological. Our beliefs are important to us. And what does it mean? Well, there’s a lot of questions there. What do you mean by belief? Exactly. You know, physicists generally don’t go to war over their belief in one physical theory over another, so it can’t be just as simple as belief. It has to be more complicated than that. And people are committed to their beliefs, too, and it isn’t obvious what commitment means. And so those are the things that I’ve been trying to unpack. What does it mean to have a belief? And what does it mean? How does it, how does it, how does it, why is it important to you? Why is it crucial to you? There’s something associated deeply. There’s a deep association between belief and value. And so then that brings up another question. What exactly do you mean by value? So that’s, that’s three hard questions. And so that’s part of it. And then, so that’s the value hierarchy question part of it. And then the error magnitude problem is, well, let’s say, let’s say you go to a party and you tell a joke and, you know, you think it’s a pretty funny joke. And you tell your joke and no one laughs. And in fact, they look at you like you’re rather odd. And then the question is, well, how should you respond to that? Like, what exactly does that indicate about you? I mean, does it indicate a minor flaw in an otherwise stellar personality? Because that’s a possibility. Or does it mean that, like, you’re a creep? Right? And maybe right down to the core. And, you know, you could even think, the less that you think that it means that you’re a creep, the more likely it is that you are one. So, but you know, it’s very hard to estimate the magnitude of an error. We have, how upset should you get when something that you don’t want to happen happens? And it’s very, very hard to figure that out. If you wake up in the morning and, you know, you have a pain, say, in your side, or you’re not feeling particularly well, it’s like, well, how upset should you get about that? And one answer is, well, like, maybe you’re going to die in three months, you know? Maybe that’s the beginning of pancreatic cancer and that’s the end of you. And so maybe you should just be terrified into paralysis when you have a pain that you can’t explain. Or maybe you should just brush it off and think, well, you know, I’ll get up and do what I usually do and it’s probably nothing. And sometimes you’re right with the it’s probably nothing approach and sometimes if you don’t go to the physician right away because you have some relatively trivial pain, then you’re dead. And so this problem of estimating magnitude of error, importance of error, it’s unbelievably difficult problem. And so I want to address both of those problems at the same time tonight. So that’s the plan. So we’ll see how that goes. And then I want to weave in there one more thing, which is this relationship between your own psychological structure, whatever that happens to be, your own value hierarchy, because there’s a very tight relationship between your value hierarchy and your psychological structure, which is why hierarchies, by the way, are necessary, which is part of the point I was trying to make, say, in Rule 1 in 12 Rules for Life when I talked about hierarchies. There’s no getting away from hierarchies. The hierarchy is a structure that tells you that one thing takes precedence over another, that one thing is more important than another, right? And if everything is of equal import, then nothing is more important than anything else, by definition. And then, well, what should you do? And the answer is, well, you can’t tell because nothing is any more important than anything else. And the definition of important, fundamentally, is something like that which you should do first. You know, that constitutes importance. And that’s also something that’s relevant, I would say, too, because a lot of the way that we look at the world is as a place to, we look at the world as a place in which to act, and we make a lot of judgments about the nature of the world in terms of how we should structure our action. In fact, the theory that I am putting forth in general is a theory that’s predicated on the notion that the essential way that we look at the world is as if it’s a form of action, like a dramatic form, like a story. That’s a good way of thinking about it, that we really do view ourselves and our place in the world as a story that’s set in a narrative landscape. And, you know, you might argue that that’s not the case. You could say that viewpoint, for example, has been superseded by a scientific viewpoint, but it isn’t obvious to me that that’s the case. And it certainly isn’t, it’s certainly not the case that we act that way. And it’s certainly not the case that we structure our political systems that way. And it’s certainly not the case that we treat each other that way, or that we think that way, or that we react emotionally that way. And so that’s a lot. And, you know, it’s also the case that the other thing that’s worth thinking about in this regard is, you know, we’ve only been thinking about the world as an objective place for 500 years, something like that. I mean, maybe you could chase it back to the ancient Greeks and go back 2,000 years, but whatever, from a historical perspective, 500 years or 200 years is the same amount of time, and it’s a tiny fraction of the amount of time that living creatures that were approximately like us have been around. So we got along fine without thinking about the world as an objective place for a very, very long time. We survived, and here we are. It doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, but it does imply that there are other ways of looking at the world that are highly functional and that have been conserved for, well, for, let’s say, for evolutionary reasons. And so, you know, if you make the case, which you might, that what you evolve to match is reality, at least you match it well enough so that reality doesn’t kill you, which is more or less the definition of evolution, if you evolve to match reality in some sense, and the manner in which you evolve predisposes you to view the world as if it’s a narrative of sorts, then possibly the world is a narrative of sorts, at least insofar as it concerns you. Now, what that means metaphysically, I don’t know, but that’s okay, because who knows anything metaphysically, virtually by definition. What’s metaphysical is beyond what you know. You can speculate, but, and so, you know, I would speculate that there is something narrative about the structure of the world, but it doesn’t matter. We don’t have to go down that route. We can just think about this practically. So the first thing I want to tell you about that I think is really important to lay out the structure of this argument is something about the relationship between perception and emotion and motivation. This is actually pretty simple, but people don’t know it. I guess it’s simple in the way that complex things are simple when you think them through for a very long time and understand them and then can finally lay them out, you know, in some manner that’s rather, let’s say, clear, because you understand them. I derived a fair bit of this information from a book called The Neuropsychology of Anxiety by a man named Jeffrey Gray, who I think was one of the two greatest neuropsychologists of the 20th century, two or three, and his Neuropsychology of Anxiety, which is on my list of recommended books, by the way, on my website, it’s a really hard book. Like, and I mean, it took me like six months to read that book, and all of it was painful. The reason for that was, well, you know, books are interesting. Some, some aren’t. Often I dog-ear the pages of books that I’m reading if I find a line or something, you know, that I’d like to remember that I think is important. You know, I have some books on my shelves that like, pages are dog-eared double because there was a really amazing thought on one page and there was a really amazing thought on another, on the other page, you know, the facing page. So the whole damn thing is just nothing but dog-ears. And then there’s other books where there’s zero. When I read Nietzsche, for example, there was lots of dog-ears on Beyond Good and Evil, which is a great book. Nietzsche actually, he came up with the most arrogant statement anybody ever made about, about himself as an author, which is really quite impressive to come up with the most arrogant statement, you know, that’s really something. He was, he was great at coming up with one-liners, philosophical one-liners. He said, I can write in a sentence what other people, what it takes other people a book to write. And then he said, no, they, no, that they can’t even write in a book. So that’s pretty good, eh? It’s like arrogant and then he topped it. It’s like, yes, this is a man who could, who could really write. Anyways, the problem with reading a book like that, Beyond Good and Evil say, is that every damn sentence is a thought and, and a deep thought. And so reading Beyond Good and Evil, it’s like just constantly being punched. I mean, partly you’re punched because you read part of it and you don’t know what the hell he says. And so then you know you’re stupid. And so that’s a punch. And then, and then, and then now and then you stumble across something you understand and it’s like, it’s hard on you. He said he philosophized with a hammer, you know, that he was breaking things apart. And there’s no doubt about that. Now and then you run across something you understand and then that breaks you apart because you understand it. And so, and it takes a long time to go through the book because you have to think about it. And God, that’s not good thinking about things. You know, well, it isn’t because, you know, when you think about it, you already know everything in some sense. You know, you’ve got a map that covers the whole world, which is sort of why you can function. And so as long as everything’s going fine, you don’t really have to adjust your map and you don’t have to think. But then if you come across something that makes you think, then what that means is that part of the way you were thinking was wrong. And so when you think something, when you’re forced to, then some little part of what you were, your map, the way you represent the world, it has to die because it was wrong. And then it has to be replaced by this new thing. And God only knows how much of what it was that was there has to die. That’s part of the magnitude of error problem. And so people don’t like to think. And so it’s hard to read difficult books like Beyond Good and Evil because you’re just forced to think and think and it’s just exhausting. You wish that he would just go away, you know, which is why they’re trying to not teach difficult books in universities anymore so that people don’t have to undergo the difficult process of actually having to think and transform themselves. Anyways, I read Geoffrey Gray’s book, The Neuropsychology of Anxiety, and it was like that. He was something, man. Student of a psychologist named Hans Eysenck, who was the most cited psychologist in the 20th century, and really quite a good psychologist. He laid a lot of the groundwork for modern theories of temperament and personality. They’ve been modified since his work, but he got extroversion right. He was the first person to really identify extroversion in a manner that could be measured. Carl Jung actually invented the notion, but Eysenck figured out how to measure it, which is a big deal. And he also noted that there was another important personality dimension, neuroticism, which is the tendency towards negative emotion. And he got that right too because that actually happened to be the case and he figured out how to measure it. So Eysenck was the first person who really established conceptually the fact that our two fundamental, we have two fundamental emotional systems, one positive and one negative, that they weren’t, they’re not opposites exactly. They’re actually separate biological systems. So some people can be extroverted, which means they’re quite happy and assertive. They smile a lot, they laugh a lot, they tell a lot of jokes, they like to party, they always like to be around people. That’s a extroverted person. And they can also be unhappy, worried, anxious, depressed, frustrated, disappointed. I mean, living with someone like that’s quite a trip because they’re just all over the place. But you know, but there are people like that because you can be high in negative emotion and you can be high in positive emotion or low in both or whatever. And it’s useful to know that. It’s useful to know that about your partner and about the people around you. And if you are interested in this sort of thing, by the way, I have a personality test online at understandmyself.com and you can go there and it takes you about 15 minutes and it gives you five dimensions of personality, extroversion, neuroticism, that’s positive and negative emotion, agreeableness, which is like, it’s probably the maternal instinct dimension, but at least it’s the variance between compassion and competitive aggression. It’s something like that and that looks like a continuum. And there’s another dimension, which is trait conscientiousness, which is integrity and undutifulness, orderliness, industriousness. And then finally, the fifth dimension, which is openness, which is like a hybrid between intellect, intelligence roughly, and creativity. And so you can go there and find out how you compare to other people. And that’s kind of interesting and useful because it’s kind of useful to know who you are and to know that that’s actually who you are. That you have a nature and some of that stuff’s movable, but it’s not as movable as you think. And the farther you want to move it, the harder it is to move. Like you can take an introvert. You know you’re an introvert if when you’re around people, you get exhausted by it and you have to go off by yourself and recover. You know, then you’re an introvert. And if you’re an introvert, you don’t really like being in groups. And so sales, you know, maybe that’s not for you, you know. And that’s a good thing to know because if you’re an introvert, why go be a salesperson and be miserable? Do something where you can spend time alone and not be miserable. That’s better. You might as well match your occupation to your temperament rather than the other way around. Now, you know, you can take an introvert. I’ve worked with lots of introverts who say had made pretty good progress in their careers and they were at a point where they had to do a lot of social networking, you know. And otherwise they were going to hit a plateau in their career. And they could be taught the skills of extroversion sort of one at a time rather painfully. So they could learn them. They could accrue the skills and that would broaden their personality outward into the say extroverted end of the continuum. But it didn’t make them extroverts. And so they were still temperamentally introverts. And so, you know, if you’re a neurotic person, high negative emotion, you can learn to regulate your anxiety and so forth. And and and but you hit a point of diminishing returns and and it’s and it’s difficult. It’s effortful. So anyways, back to Isaac and then back to Jeffrey Gray. So Isaac identified extroversion and introversion or extroversion and neuroticism. And that’s going to be very important in a minute. And Gray elaborated Isaac’s theories to a large degree. But he did that neurologically. He was a master of the animal experimental literature. And a lot of that’s being phased out of universities because the regulations for animal experimentation have become so onerous and difficult that it’s much easier for beginning scientists just not to bother. And that’s a real catastrophe because we have learned a lot about the brain in the last 50 years. A lot. And we’ve learned very little about the brain from PET scans and MRI scans and like that complicated technology that’s used to study human beings and an unbelievable amount by studying animals. And you might think rats in particular. And you might think, well, you know, rats, why? They’re not much like human beings, you know, but but that’s wrong. You share, I don’t know what it is, 98.5% of your genetic structure with rats. Some of you probably more than that. And you know, we haven’t devolved from the common ancestor with rats from an evolutionary perspective that long ago. I mean, like it’s millions of years ago, you know, but it’s short compared to how long ago we devolved, let’s say from, or we, yeah, devolved, I think that’s good enough, from amphibians. And so we’re a lot like rats, man. And we have the same skeletal structure and our brains are quite similar. And the neurochemistry is very, very, very similar. I mean, the neurochemistry is similar right down to the level of crustaceans, which is why I wrote about lobsters in rule one because our because I thought it was so bloody amazing when I came across that literature to see that when lobsters are defeated in a social contest and they lose their hierarchical position that they undergo neurochemical changes that are analogous to the neurochemical changes that human beings undergo. That’s so amazing. And that the same damn drugs that help us antidepressants essentially also cheer up defeated lobsters. I mean, it’s such a it’s a staggering demonstration of the continuity of biology across, you know, unbelievable spans of time. You know, critics have complained that I cherry picked the data, but they don’t know what the hell they’re talking about. So they don’t. They don’t. I studied the serotonin system for a very, very long time. And I know perfectly well that one of the things that it does is monitor your position in a social hierarchy. And it’s more important than that because the serotonin system is a it’s a master control neurochemical system. It’s like the conductor of an orchestra. Everything in your brain depends on the serotonin system, which is why you think about it like an antidepressant decreases the rate at which neurons will reuptake serotonin. You need serotonin to modulate the way your neurons work. You take an antidepressant and the serotonin works a little longer. OK, so what’s the consequence of that? Well, let’s say you’re depressed. OK, we’ve got to think about being depressed for a minute. So when you’re depressed, this is what happens. All you remember about the past is what’s negative. So everything about the past is negative. All you can see in the present is what’s negative. Everything about the present is negative. And nothing about the future is positive at all. And so that’s interesting, eh, because it means that something has shifted inside you, neurophysiologically, that changes the way you view everything, everything, your entire past, the present, and the entire future. And what it essentially does is exaggerate negative emotion to a tremendous degree, that’s depression, and suppress positive emotion. Now there can be variance in that. Sometimes you see depressed people and they come, you can think about your own mood in this way, you know, you might say, well, I’m not that sad, but I just sort of lost my interest in everything. OK, so that means that what’s happened is your positive emotion system has been suppressed, because the positive emotion system is what gives you that interest in things that pulls you forward to action. And the negative emotion system, that’s anxiety, that’s a huge part of it, frustration, disappointment, grief, pain, that kind of covers it. Anger as well, though anger is a bit complicated because it’s half a positive emotion and half a negative emotion, which is why it feels so good to get angry, by the way, and why it also impels you to action, whereas most negative emotions stop you. So in any case, if your serotonin system, if your serotonin function declines, then all of a sudden everything is negative. You think, well, isn’t that interesting? How the hell can it be that something can change within you that changes everything? And the answer has to be, well, it must be a fundamental system that’s been changed, right? Because if it changes everything, it has to be a system on which all other systems depend. And that is the case with the serotonin system. And that’s really worth knowing, especially when you also know that the serotonin system counts where you are in the social hierarchy. And so there’s this weird kind of one-to-one correspondence. Imagine a social hierarchy has 10 levels. I don’t care what hierarchy you’re in. Most people’s hierarchies are actually quite small. They sort of consist of the people that they compare themselves to, you know? Which is a strange thing, too, because one of the things that you see happening with really successful people is they actually don’t get a lot happier and a lot less unhappy as they climb the broad social ladder, because the people they compare themselves to change. And so I can tell you a funny story about this. So I know this guy. I worked with him for a long time. His name is Deo Ressie. And he’s a hell of a guy. He’s like six foot seven, and he’s like really charismatic. And he’s been pretty successful. He built this company in San Francisco called Founder Institute, and it’s only one of many things he’s done. And it’s operating in 165 cities. It’s a school to teach people how to be entrepreneurs. He’s trying to export Silicon Valley, what would you call it? Know-how. And he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make it a place where people can go to school, and he’s trying to make companies as a consequence of building this school. That’s pretty good. And he was having a rough time and was talking to me on the phone about, you know, he wasn’t so happy about what he’d done with his life, and he said, I compare myself with my roommate, and I’ve hardly done anything. And his roommate was Elon Musk. It’s like I just laughed at him. I thought, jeez, really? You haven’t done anything compared to Elon Musk, and you’re depressed about it. It’s like, yeah, well, you and the rest of the planet. I mean, look, what did Musk do? What did he do? He invented an electric car. That’s impossible. Then he made it work. That’s impossible. And then he built an entire infrastructure to charge it, and that worked, and that’s impossible. And then they’re good cars. And then he made them faster than any cars have ever been, and cheap, and so that’s impossible. And then that wasn’t good enough, so then he decided that he would compete with NASA, which is impossible, and build rockets at one-tenth the price they were building them, except bigger, and then he would shoot his car on his rocket out into space. Right. And he did all that. And it’s like Adeo was thinking, I’ve hardly done anything with my life. It’s like, oh. So, what I’m trying to say is that, you know, primates of our type sort of have a group size that we think about as our group of about 200 people. So, like, on Facebook, for example, the probability that you’re in something approximating, reasonable, constant communication with more than 200 people is low. You just don’t have the time, and you can’t keep track of it. So, our natural group is something like 200, and our groups tend to fragment when they get bigger. And that’s also associated, by the way, with cortical size. You see this in primates, is that as primates develop larger brains, the group size that they seem to be able to manage also increases. And that might be part of the reason why they develop larger brains. Who knows? But anyways, it’s about 200 people. And the problem is that as you get more successful, say, the global hierarchy of 100 million people, the 200 people that you compare yourself changes. And so that you end up with 50 million yacht is like 20 feet shorter than your friend’s, you know, 750 an hour, you’re working whenever there’s work to do, no matter what else you have to do. And you know, you might, and you might be making 400,000 a year. And that’s good. But you’re probably married to someone who’s making approximately the same amount of money. So you actually don’t need that much money. And you certainly don’t need more. You might want it, but you don’t need it. And then you start thinking, why the hell would anyone in the right mind do this? Which is the right question, by the way, to ask about the people who sit in the C-suites in major corporations. It’s like they’re working 70, 80 hours a week for 30 or 40 years. You know, often they sacrifice their families for it and everything else. And they’re a particular kind of person who does that, usually hyper conscientious. But like the question, why you would do that, is a really good question. How about you have a life? How about you have a partner that you see sometime? How about you have some children that you actually get to see and take care of? And so then you think, well maybe I don’t need to work 80 hours a week to continue my rise through the upper stratosphere of the law profession. I’ll pull back, I’ll find an 8 hour a day job or a part-time job, and I’ll have a family. Well that’s what’s happening in Scandinavia. It’s like, is that okay? Or not? And if it’s not okay, what are we going to do? We’re going to enforce gender equality there too, are we? You know, they’ve enforced gender equality at the board level in the Scandinavian countries. It hasn’t made a god damn bit of difference to the number of women who are in management positions in Scandinavia. And the reason for that was, that wasn’t the problem. It wasn’t systemic oppression. There’s a multitude of reasons that men and women take different pathways in their careers, and they’re becoming more evident. Another one is that women, so women are different, higher in negative emotion, higher in agreeableness, both the same in conscientiousness, openness, and extroversion. There’s some differences, but they’re relatively minor. Pretty much the same in terms of intelligence. Doesn’t look like it’s an ability issue for most professions, with the exception of the extended male variability hypothesis. That might have to do with upper level mathematical genius, but we can leave that aside, because it’s debatable. There is another difference between men and women, and this is the biggest difference that psychologists have discovered, and that’s of interest. Men are more interested in things, on average, and women are more interested in people, on average. And the difference is actually quite big. It’s one standard deviation, which means that, it’s a little more than that, which means that if you were a man as interested in people, as the typical woman is interested in people, you would be, you would have to be more interested in people than 85% of men. And if you were a woman who is interested in things, as the average man is interested in things, you’d have to be more interested in things than 85% of women. So it’s actually quite a big difference. And so thing interest is a big determination of interest in the STEM fields, and women just aren’t that interested in things. Now some of them are, and they go into the STEM fields, but most of them aren’t. So what are you going to do about that? So, you know, one of the things they’re trying to do in the Scandinavian countries is they’re going to really start to socialize boys and girls different in preschool. Okay, so that’s good. So that’s what you’re going to allow, is that this is the idea. You’re going to discount the notion entirely that there might actually be differences between men and women, even though that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. But we’re going to discount that, and we’re going to assume that all the differences in outcome are a consequence of systemic oppression. And then we’re going to give enough power to the state so that they’re going to transform the way that our children are treated when they’re three and four by teachers, by preschool teachers. And we’re going to try to rejig the entire culture predicated on that theory. That’s the solution. Well, if you don’t think that that’s a totalitarian solution, then you are not thinking. Applause Applause And this is the last one I’ll answer. A little ornery about these questions tonight, apparently. What do you think of our state governments teaching gender fluidity concepts to primary school children? This is what I think. I think if your damn primary school teachers knew how to teach kids to read, they wouldn’t have to bother teaching gender fluidity. Applause Applause Applause Applause Thank you, everyone. It was a pleasure talking to all of you. Applause Applause Applause You have a lovely city, by the way, and it’s been a pleasure being here. Good night.